Dick Morris is a likable and mildly entertaining political analyst, especially compared to the typically vicious riffraff blabbing on the major news networks, but his failure to grasp essentials is blatantly (and sickeningly) clear in this article.
Despite his typically ornamental discourse, he usually offers very keen insights into the bowels of Washington. As an insider on both sides of the isle, this professional politician knows the players and the game so well that he often comes off as almost a snitch revealing some secret esoteric tips. In this piece Morris grimly states his forecast for the next stage of America’s demise. While some of his conclusions will probably be remarkably accurate, his outlining premises are not.
2009-2010 will rank with 1913-14, 1933-36, 1964-65 and 1981-82 as years that will permanently change our government, politics and lives. Just as the stars were aligned for Wilson, Roosevelt, Johnson and Reagan, they are aligned for Obama. Simply put, we enter his administration as free-enterprise, market-dominated, laissez-faire America. We will shortly become like Germany, France, the United Kingdom, or Sweden — a socialist democracy in which the government dominates the economy, determines private-sector priorities and offers a vastly expanded range of services to many more people at much higher taxes.
Whoa… sorry Dick, but there’s absolutely nothing laissez faire about America. Even in our infancy there was no strict separation of economy and state. Does he know what the phrase means? Laissez faire is French for “leave alone” - meaning, keep your meddling government hands (not partially, but fully) out of the economy. An economy departs from that unknown ideal with the very first non-objective regulation. And, I hate to steal the thunder of his ominous prediction, but we’ve already eroded into a socialist democracy, and of the very nature that he predicts - surely he knows this.
Obama will accomplish his agenda of “reform” under the rubric of “recovery.” Using the electoral mandate bestowed on a Democratic Congress by restless voters and the economic power given his administration by terrified Americans, he will change our country fundamentally in the name of lifting the depression. His stimulus packages won’t do much to shorten the downturn — although they will make it less painful — but they will do a great deal to change our nation.
That power was given, but not out of desperation alone. Americans lack the fundamental regard for individual rights. Combine that with the de facto mindset of altruism guided by pragmatism, and enough of “the people” will condone any cannibalistic whim for the sake of the tribe. The deadly sanction granted by this nation of victims was done so with the calm indifference of concrete-bound compassion - not out of panic.
In implementing his agenda, Barack Obama will emulate the example of Franklin D. Roosevelt. (Not the liberal mythology of the New Deal, but the actuality of what it accomplished.) When FDR took office, he was enormously successful in averting a total collapse of the banking system and the economy. But his New Deal measures only succeeded in lowering the unemployment rate from 23 percent in 1933, when he took office, to 13 percent in the summer of 1937. It never went lower. And his policies of over-regulation generated such business uncertainty that they triggered a second-term recession. Unemployment in 1938 rose to 17 percent and, in 1940, on the verge of the war-driven recovery, stood at 15 percent. (These data and the real story of Hoover’s and Roosevelt’s missteps, uncolored by ideology, are available in The Forgotten Man by Amity Shlaes, copyright 2007.)
But he will emulate the same collectivist, Keynesian example of FDR - not only fostering the same outcome, but guided by the same explicit tactics. They are, in principle, cut from the same mold.
Regarding the Shlaes reference as being factual and uncolored, how could FDR’s missteps be classified as such without being colored by an ideology? The term misstep would indicate a flaw or error based on some standard. That standard, and the corresponding ideology which deems them erroneous is reality - precisely what the varying degrees of statism considered by Morris as ideologies are conspicuously lacking as a standard. Morris displays a shocking level of concrete-bound thinking in this passage. Capitalism isn’t even on his radar, primarily because he doesn’t understand it as his first paragraph proves. The only options in his world differ merely in degree of Government meddling.
Obama’s record will be similar, although less wise and more destructive. He will begin by passing every program for which liberals have lusted for decades, from alternative-energy sources to school renovations, infrastructure repairs and technology enhancements. These are all good programs, but they normally would be stretched out for years. But freed of any constraint on the deficit — indeed, empowered by a mandate to raise it as high as possible — Obama will do them all rather quickly.
Good? For whom, and according to what standard? Each program mentioned is beyond the proper role of Government, assumes mass violation of property rights, and will further cripple our economy.
Will he raise taxes? Why should he? With a congressional mandate to run the deficit up as high as need be, there is no reason to raise taxes now and risk aggravating the depression. Instead, Obama will follow the opposite of the Reagan strategy. Reagan cut taxes and increased the deficit so that liberals could not increase spending. Obama will raise spending and increase the deficit so that conservatives cannot cut taxes. And, when the economy is restored, he will raise taxes with impunity, since the only people who will have to pay them would be rich Republicans.
Morris fails to explain how an increase in expenditures, by a non-productive entity inflating our currency, can occur without negative economic results, and by what magic will the economy be restored?
In the name of stabilizing the banking system, Obama will nationalize it. Using Troubled Asset Relief Program funds to write generous checks to needy financial institutions, his administration will demand preferred stock in exchange. Preferred stock gets dividends before common stockholders do. With the massive debt these companies will owe to the government, they will only be able to afford dividends for preferred stockholders — the government, not private investors. So who will buy common stock? And the government will demand that its bills be paid before any profits that might materialize are reinvested in the financial institution, so how will the value of the stocks ever grow? Devoid of private investors, these institutions will fall ever more under government control.
I think his prediction here has merit.
But it is the healthcare system that will experience the most dramatic and traumatic of changes. The current debate between erecting a Medicare-like governmental single payer or channeling coverage through private insurance misses the essential point. Without a lot more doctors, nurses, clinics, equipment and hospital beds, health resources will be strained to the breaking point. The people and equipment that now serve 250 million Americans and largely neglect all but the emergency needs of the other 50 million will now have to serve everyone. And, as government imposes ever more Draconian price controls and income limits on doctors, the supply of practitioners and equipment will decline as the demand escalates. Price increases will be out of the question, so the government will impose healthcare rationing, denying the older and sicker among us the care they need and even barring them from paying for it themselves. (Rationing based on income and price will be seen as immoral.)
Indeed the essential point is never considered, but what Morris deems the essential is only a symptom. There will be a shortage of resources, both professionals and supplies, because socialized medicine violates the rights of all involved parties. Medical professionals are already turning their noses up at a system in which their expertise is wrangled by regulation and the economic distortion of socialization. The coercive monopoly of Government MedCo. will also cripple the market for medical supplies, save the few who’ll jump at the opportunity for a lucrative Government contract.
Finally, he will use the expansive powers of the Federal Communications Commission to impose “local” control and ownership of radio stations and to impose the “fairness doctrine” on talk radio. The effect will be to drive talk radio to the Internet, fundamentally change its economics, and retard its growth for years hence.
Couple this with the impending wedge of Net Neutrality and we’ll have full censorship of all viable media - not to mention a stupid and crippled Internet.
So Obama’s name will be mud by 2012 and probably by 2010 as well. And the Republican Party will make big gains and regain much of its lost power.
I don’t think it will happen so quickly. There’s still a decent sliver of freedom left to pin the blame on. As long as there’s a scapegoat, Obama will remain the darling mascot of the irrational Left. Besides, Conservatives have nothing better to offer - only the same pragmatist notions in a different hue.
But it will be too late to reverse the socialism of much of the economy, the demographic change in the electorate, the rationing of healthcare by the government, the surge of unionization and the crippling of talk radio.
It may be too late to do so without painful depressions, but as long as people are open to the ideas of reason, rights, selfishness (in the true sense of the word) and individualism, there is an opportunity for America to see its brightest days.